Why the US election could ‘open the flood-gates’ for international real estate investment

‘This coming US election will be more than just a decision on leadership – it could signal a new phase of high demand for international real estate,’ says Parisian buying agent Susie Hollands.

The US presidential election is set to take place in just a few days and this year’s vote holds profound implications, not just within American borders but around the globe. One of the most intriguing and under-discussed impacts is the effect on global property markets such as Paris, writes Susie Hollands, CEO and founder of VINGT Paris.

The anticipation for the 2024 presidential outcome has put a pause on high-value international transactions in the French capital. With the stakes high and uncertainty looming, many international buyers are choosing to sit on the sidelines until they know the results of what’s shaping up to be the most pivotal US election in a generation.

‘The potential influx of activity once [post-election] floodgates open could transform the Parisian property landscape, making 2024 a historic year for real estate in the city’

The potential influx of activity once these floodgates open could transform the Parisian property landscape, making 2024 a historic year for real estate in the city. Traditionally progressives opt for Paris, while Republicans opt for south of France luxury destinations such as St Tropez and St Jean Cap Ferrat.

Paris, with its rich culture, architectural beauty, and unique blend of old-world charm and modern amenities, has long been a draw for international property investors. However, in the months leading up to the US election American buyers have been notably hesitant to make new purchases or finalise deals. Transactions involving US buyers have been on hold over the past few months, awaiting the results to gauge both the economic direction and foreign policy under a new administration.

The US election will likely impact the strength of the dollar and American stock markets, both of which are factors for high-net-worth individuals contemplating overseas investments. Whether we see Trump or Harris in the White House will impact the extent the US government oversees financial markets, and shapes tax policy.

Moreover, shifts in monetary policy in the US could send ripple effects through exchange rates, potentially strengthening the dollar against the euro and historically, shifts can make a multi-million-euro property significantly less expensive and boost Paris’ Left Bank property market which always attracts US buyer interest.

For potential international property investors, the outcome on 5th November will actually have a real impact on whether now is the right time to secure their piece of the French capital.

Many clients have actually instructed a search already. Those who plan to buy want to know the result before investing in a French Trophy asset – typically homes with views of the River Seine views and lateral flats at the best addresses in Faubourg, St Germain or close to Luxembourg Gardens.

‘With the US election’s result uncertain, those eyeing Paris are keen to wait and see which policies will emerge and if they will be favourable for Americans investing abroad’

As well as the enduring cultural appeal, the Paris property market has always benefited from a “safe haven” status, where buyers and investors seek to diversify assets or shield themselves from economic conditions back home. This factor has only been accentuated in recent years. With economic and geopolitical instability increasing globally, Paris’s reputation as a stable, high-value real estate market has attracted even more international interest. With the US election’s result uncertain, those eyeing Paris are keen to wait and see which policies will emerge and if they will be favourable for Americans investing abroad.

The “wait-and-see” approach is not unique to this election cycle; we have been handling sales to US buyers since the controversial 2004 George W Bush victory. Yet 2024 presents an unusually potent combination of economic and social factors and differences between Democrats and Republican policy. We expect the conclusion of the presidential race effect to amplify activity on property markets worldwide, with Paris standing to benefit.

Pent-up demand from delayed transactions is likely to be unleashed post-election. This pause has created a buildup of would-be buyers, eager to secure a property in the French capital once they have clarity on the US policy landscape and dollar-euro exchange rates. We have conducted many more viewings in the past weeks and months for Americans looking to push the button on a purchase after the results are announced. There is also an apprehension in Paris that tax policies could impact wealthy French residents which would bring more inventory to the market.

We could see a huge uptick in Paris property sales from American buyers within weeks, setting off a ripple effect which could further boost Paris property values and drive up competition for prime assets as buyers look to make more informed financial decisions.

”Paris and other prime markets are primed for what could be a “gold rush” of international buyers, with Americans leading the pack”

Paris and other prime markets are primed for what could be a “gold rush” of international buyers, with Americans leading the pack. As one of the most iconic and economically resilient cities in the world, Paris’s market conditions are ideal for investors looking for long-term stability, cultural cachet, and strong appreciation potential.

For now, however, much hangs in the balance. A new administration could bring a shift in economic policy, encouraging US investments abroad. As Paris prepares to welcome this wave of buyers, the city’s real estate professionals are bracing for an intense surge in transactions, one that could reshape Paris’s luxury property market for years to come.

This coming US election will be more than just a decision on leadership – it could signal a new phase of high demand for international real estate, with American investors playing a key role. For those ready and waiting, election day will be just the beginning – and we will be watching the results come in along with US citizens already in Paris in Harry’s Bar – a favourite among expats.